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Craft beer predictions: What lies ahead in 2018?

Will Cleveland
Democrat and Chronicle
A colorful flight of beers at Silver Lake Brewing Project in Perry, Wyoming County.

We saw insane growth in the upstate beer scene in 2017. This coming year promises to bring more of the same. It's a truly exciting time to be a local beer nerd.

We have nine breweries in the city of Rochester (with at least two more coming) and 25 breweries in Monroe County (with at least three more slated to open in 2018). Ontario County now has 13 breweries. Livingston County will soon boast as many as five breweries. There are rumblings of one coming to Wayne County and two are scheduled to open this year in Batavia, Genesee County.

I reached out to all of the craft beverage contacts in my phone and asked them a simple question: What do think will happen in the craft beer industry in 2018 — whether it be at your brewery or in this region?

Here's what they said:

Zach Clicquennoi, Tap and Mallet general manager

Tap and Mallet, a pub in Rochester's South Wedge neighborhood

More great beer is being produced in this state right now. That has allowed us to shift our focus. If you look at the market here, there is such a huge contingent of people who are willing to travel to breweries to pick up cans. For us, if we can go and buy those beers and put them on draft here, then why not? It's what people are looking to get. That will continue to grow.

The market is still hop-driven. I don't think the hazy IPA thing is going away. I do think that you're seeing a push from breweries to make really nice, hoppy beers that are not double IPAs. They are making beers that are more sessionable. Easy-drinking beers that are full of flavor. I think that's where the craft lagers and Pilsners are becoming more prevalent. We like to put on those big double IPAs and adjunct barrel-aged stouts, but those flavors can burn people out really easily. It's nice to have beers with subtleties. 

The hazy IPA thing has introduced a whole new customer to beer and IPAs. But bitterness provides balance. It's just like anything else. If your beer is only providing one flavor note, like fruit juice, it can be rather boring. Similar to food, you need things like salt and acid to balance and enhance the flavors. That’s where I hope bitterness can start to come back into the IPA game.

Jeff Osborne, Stoneyard Brewing head brewer

I think you're going to see an increase in lower alcohol, drinkable beers, whether it's hoppy or a Pilsner or whatever. I think you're going to see an increase in sour beer production.

This year is going to be a big one for Stoneyard. I got an email this week with pictures of our 30-barrel brewhouse. So apparently that's happening. It's going to be crazy. 

Paul Leone, New York Brewers Association executive director

I see craft lagers and craft Pilsners becoming more popular. Lighter styles of beer, lower in alcohol, more drinkable. It won't take away too much from the IPAs, but I think the lighter styles are becoming more popular and craft brewers are getting better at making them. Don't forget that a Pilsner won the Governor's Cup. (Threes Brewing's Vliet Pilsner was named the best beer in New York at the first New York Craft Beer Competition in 2017.)

Ethan Cox, Community Beer Works (Buffalo) co-founder/owner

Community Beer Works,which opened in 2012, is one of the best breweries in western New York.

We're excited. We have two facilities coming online this year (a bigger production brewery in Buffalo and a brewpub in Niagara Falls). Clearly, we're betting that there is still growth in this market and statewide. I think that's a pretty reasonable bet.

We are on the verge of 400 breweries right now in the state. It'll be a new record when we get there. But there are still a lot of communities that are under-served in terms of having their own brewery or brewpub experience. There is some room there. I do think the shelves are getting crowded. So if your ambitions are more toward packaging, it's probably best to keep your ambitions modest. It doesn't mean that there isn't any room on the shelves anymore, it just means that there is less room than there used to be. You have to fight for it a little harder.

Trend-wise, IPAs are going to continue to matter. Sours are going to start to matter a little bit more. I really think this is the year of the lager. I would look for a lot of lighter lager offerings. Lightly hoppy lagers are a great way to satisfy those hop heads, but also give them the drinkability that lagers offer. Which particular kinds of lagers, I think it'll be creative. I don't think it will necessarily be Pilsners or bocks. I think it's going to be newer styles, emerging styles.

Rob Shafer, Stumblin' Monkey Brewing co-founder/brewer

I think locally you're going to see more and more breweries canning. Eric (Miller, Stumblin' Monkey co-founder/brewer) and myself are looking into it as well. And the new breweries opening up have really added to the strength of the local scene. They've produced some great quality to start. I think you're going to see more collaboration between breweries. It'll be a combination of community and quality.

More:Swing on in: Victor's Stumblin' Monkey Brewery opens

Marc Schulz, Prison City Pub and Brewery (Auburn) co-founder/owner

Prison City Mass Riot IPA

We want to make beer fun again. I see that, collectively, we're all taking beer way too seriously. It's the rating culture, the buzz factor. Everyone has always been concerned with the over-wine-ification of beer. Beer has left wine-ification in the dust. Beer is a fun beverage, it's a social beverage. I feel like you can make really good beer and you can be serious about making really good beer, but I'd like to see people having a really good time with beer, instead of being so uppity about it, for lack of a better term. 

Alex Bielecki, J. Ryan's Pub (Syracuse) owner

My prediction for 2018 is that the local breweries will start producing beers that are sought after on a regional and national level in a way that will encourage people to come to Rochester for them, a la Prison City, Other Half, and the New England breweries. Also, that Las Vegas and Tampa Bay meet in the Stanley Cup Finals and that half of Canada has a heart attack because of this.

Jen Meyers, War Horse Brewing brewer

A flight of beers at Geneva's War Horse Brewing

I think you're going to see a continued upward trend on NE-style IPAs. Brewers looking for more high essential oil hops here. You'll also see more distinction between breweries as it becomes oversaturated. My resolution is that Pete (Achilles, War Horse brewer) and I are gonna make some great beers and hopefully continue to help put the Finger Lakes beer scene on people's minds.

More:Beer Talk: War Horse Brewing sets down roots

Deron Weet, Lagunitas Brewing upstate sales representative

This is the third year in a row I'm gonna predict people will drink more Pilsners, lighter and lower gravity beers where you can enjoy four to five beers. It's as simple as that. Hopefully, it'll be the charm.

Tina Weymann, New York state beer writer for the Great Lakes Brewing News

Back to basics, I hope stout and porter, English mild, dubbel and tripel, straight-ahead American IPA, and a whole lotta Pilsner.

Robert Allen, Detroit Free Press reporter

Goses in summer.

Rich DeTommaso, BJCP certified judge

Lagers.

Len Dummer, Knucklehead Craft Brewing co-owner

Knucklehead Dark Shadow, a maple vanilla porter.

I see us increasing the production of seasonals. We've been trying to produce more than just our flagships and just give people more choices. We're looking at expanding here in Webster. We're looking at buying the building and going large. We've got a general contractor putting together numbers. We want to keep our flagships, but we also want to do more seasonals. So we'll focus on the ones that sell well. 

I've been saying this for a few years, but I think the local and the national scenes will become the same thing. I think microbreweries are going to become more of a neighborhood niche. I don't think we can all have SKUs on the shelves in big grocery stores. I think what a neighborhood brewery should be focusing on distributing in a close area, anywhere within 30 or 40 miles of your brewery. The bottom line for me is retail sales. And if I distribute beer in Wisconsin, that person is not coming to Webster to try my beer. But if I can be the best brewery in Webster and the spot that people think about, I'm blessed.

More:Plying his craft, beer columnist shares best selections from 2017

Derric Slocum, Lunkenheimer Brewing (Weedsport) co-owner/brewer

We're looking at both expansions in our space and in the market. We just started canning. We're hoping that once we get a few more label approvals, we can start pushing out a little farther. Right now, we're only doing trial runs at the brewery. Over the course of this year, we hope to get them out, maybe even into the Rochester market.

We don't really make huge beers in general. Our flagship beer is a Kölsch, Buster. It's the only beer we have all the time. It's just a great light beer and it's great for transitioning people into craft beer. It's good, it moves. I'm hoping the haze craze subdues a little bit. It's not going anywhere. But I hope it quiets down. Watching the bigger markets, I think the whole session thing is becoming a bigger market trend. I think we're going to see a lot more low ABV beers. I don't know that we were ahead of the trend, it just happened to work out for us.

Elise Barnard, OSB Ciderworks co-founder/owner

I predict that people are going to start liking funkier stuff. Not that regular basic cider, just apples, isn't good. But I think that a lot of cider drinkers want more. Just like there are so many different beers, I think you're going to see more and more weird things coming out in cider. We do some weird stuff. We have ciders with currants and thyme. That's really weird when you compare it to just a basic apple cider. Just like with food, people want something new and interesting. I think that's going to happen with cider, as well as beer. IPAs are great, but you're going to start seeing funkier IPAs and funkier stouts. People might do different blends and you might even see a beer style that doesn't exist yet. 

Kyle Kennedy, K2 Brothers Brewing co-founder/brewer

We want to keep growing. We would love to be able to start canning. And it's one of our big passions, we would love to start making sours. 

Joe McBane, Tap and Mallet co-owner

Joe McBane, co-owner of Tap & Mallet in Rochester.

The fact that the law exists and you can drive anywhere in the state and purchase beer (kegs) from breweries, I think that's going to become more of a trend. We've been part of leading that charge and people see what's happening. Everyone is looking for something to set themselves apart. Customers are looking for new and exciting. One of the ways you can do that is by bringing in stuff that other people don't have. I think that people will change their outlook a bit. If it's from New York state, it's local beer. 

In the last few years, there has been a lot of the general beer drinking public who is quite accepting of beer that I'm not necessarily super excited about. But they've been excited to try it and explore. I think that in the next year we might move away a little bit from this wild exploration to a refining of the New York state brew palate. 

More:Is there a craft beer bubble in Rochester? Not with our 'insatiable thirst'

Tony Jones, Silver Lake Beer Project co-founder/brewer

Our client base prefers the sessionable beers. I think the people who go out and have a few, they're all about the sessionable beers. As I get older, that's what I am looking for, too. We're going to see that trend of the (Founders) All Day IPA, but not necessarily IPAs. Some darker sessionable beers. That's what I'm hoping. 

I'm going to try more mixed fermentations, too. I want to experiment and have more fun. It's easy to get trapped in the production process and forget that, 'Oh, yeah, this is a fun thing.' 

More:Monster mash: Perry's Silver Lake Brewing Project opens

Julie Bielecki, AJ's Beer Warehouse owner

My prediction — more great beers. My beer resolution — visit more breweries. I see all of our many local breweries taking the year to focus on differentiating themselves from their neighbors. For example: by deciding to package or not, creating new and rotating beers, and focusing on building relationships with their patrons. Some will choose to expand, some will feel they are right-sized, but they will focus on finding their niche.

Joe Bustos, North American Breweries (Genesee's parent company) senior manager for brewing quality and innovation

From my personal perspective, it depends on how you're asking the question. If you're asking what's going to make the most money, I still think it will be your normal staples. If you're asking me about what's going to be popular, it's going to be your esoteric stuff. People want to have a story. People want to know, this is something I can't get at other places. This is going to be unique, this is fun, this is the brewer trying to experiment. But it's probably only going to be one batch or maybe a couple batches. You'll always have your staples, but you'll have to find out: What is your brand? That's what gets people to come out, fun. I don't know if it's the next thing because it's already happening, but I think there is going to be more of a focus on the esoteric. Brewers are understanding that it's not just about good beer, it has to come with a story or a purpose or a meaning.

Jeff Ching, The Playhouse/Swillburger, Owl House, and Swilly's Fish & Franks co-owner

The Playhouse/Swillburger in Rochester's Swillburg neighborhood

I'm looking forward to being more active with breweries. Our goal at Playhouse is to do more events with breweries. At the Owl House, we want to do more in-house tastings, getting the brewers in front of the drinkers. That's nothing new. I see a parallel with the farmers and getting their food directly to the customers in restaurants. Brewers are so focused on the process. That's my job as a restaurant and bar owner to be that bridge.

James Hilbert, One Stop Brew Shop co-owner

We have this conversation every year. We sit down and reflect on the store. I ask my customers, 'What do you want to see?' That helps me better understand how to drive the business forward. Some of the best feedback comes from when we drive out of market, specifically down through the Hudson Valley and into New York City, and bring beers back to the store. I don't think the positive feedback is just because it's out-of-market stuff, I think the focus is just great beers that are also brewed in New York. I've honed in on Plan Bee (a wild ale-only brewery in Poughkeepsie) personally. I love their model. They grow their own ingredients. That farm-to-table model but with beer. The market might shift to that a little bit more. More local, in the sense of New York state, not just Rochester. That's what I'm hoping for and that's what people seem to like.

Jon Mansfield, War Horse Brewing manager

In 2018, I see things going local, even more than they already are. Not just the amount of options that people have, but the quality of options people have. How fresh and how new everything is. You could cycle through breweries just in Monroe County, visit one or two a week, and by the time you get to the end of the circle, the tap list at the first brewery will be entirely different. It's just incredible how fast people are moving and how innovative people are just in our little area. There's going to be more shelf space, both physically and emotionally, devoted to local beer. I think you're going to see less out-of-state beer, like the medium-sized breweries. I think you've either got to be big — like Dogfish Head, Stone or Rogue,  — or you've got to be small and nimble, where people are going to want what is coming out the day of. A nice big chunk of that bell curve or that piece of pie will be for local breweries all over the place.

My prediction for beer is that hopefully, we lean more on nice, crisp, classic, clean Pilsners. That'll probably be my prediction for 2019, too. But I think it's going to be another year of IPAs. It's just tough for tank space with the smaller guys. But I think people will bend the rules. It's kind of what craft beer is supposed to be about, bending the rules and exploring. I think you'll see a lot of new styles come out.

Nick Mesrobian, Roc Brewing head brewer

Nick Mesrobian, head brewer, left, Josh Hunt, assistant brewer/chef, middle, and Chris Spinelli, co-founder, outside Roc Brewing.

We're adding a canning line this year. Hopefully, we'll be able to add more tanks. The canning line will enable us to sell some of our more specialty things at the brewery. 

We're going to do a celebration of cream ales. Nothing is more Rochester than cream ales. We had the idea to get everyone together and make cream ales and then just drink them to have a great time. It's not a competition, it's not a festival. It's just a party.

George Aldrich, ReInvention Brewing co-founder/brewer

Owner/brewer George Aldrich pours a beer inside his Ontario County craft brewery.

We're looking forward to implementing a kitchen of sorts. We don't have the space for a full kitchen, but we want to take advantage of the farm brewing license allowance for food service. We're just starting to figure out how that works.

Canandaigua area brewers are planning some exciting events this year that will bring a brighter focus on the region. We're trying to plan some events and things that will bring more visibility to this area.

And I think lagers will start getting even more traction. There is a reason why the beer industry gravitated toward lagers 200 years ago and I think we're going to figure out that there is something worth exploring there. There's a nice twist that craft brewers can put on that.

Will Cleveland's predictions and wishes for 2018

Beer columnist Will Cleveland sampling Trillium's Melcher Street IPA. Trillium (Boston) brews New England-style IPAs, which is a style that no brewery in Rochester produces.

Here are a few things I would like to see and things I know we will see in 2018:

♦I'd love to see more of our local breweries canning their products (and I know more will). And when those breweries can, I want the cans to be dated. I want to know exactly when that beer was packaged.

♦I expect brewery growth to continue in the coming year. I also won't be shocked to find more some breweries closing. But I think the growth will be in unexpected ways and in unexpected areas. Breweries will open where you wouldn’t expect breweries to thrive. There will be more in Monroe County.

Rochester has a nearly insatiable thirst for craft beer.

♦I expect local consumers to continue to become more educated and even more refined. I'm hoping that we start to move past the sentiment that just because something is local it has to be good. That isn't always the case.

We have a lot of mediocre beer in this area. We even have some bad — and deeply flawed — beers. I hope consumers start to recognize what is technically sound, what is cleanly fermented and what constitutes quality. I think we're well on our way to this.

♦I want to see local breweries stepping up their game. We have a solid foundation. Now it is up to us to make it even better. When something isn't good, voice your concerns constructively. Brewers want to foster open dialogue. And I hope this space is one where we can start and facilitate some of those conversations.

♦To the brewers, don't be afraid to be different. Take a few risks and make people want to come back and try your next beers.

WCLEVELAND@Gannett.com

 

 

 

WCLEVELAND@Gannett.com